Asking Prices for Resale Condos in Central Osaka Fall for a Third Month; Four in Ten Listings Have Cut Prices

The short version: asking prices in central Osaka have turned down, while the Osaka Prefecture average still rises

On October 22, 2026, the private research firm Tokyo Kantei released its monthly report on resale condominium prices in Japan's three major metropolitan areas and main cities for September 2026^[1]. The index aggregates the asking prices of resale condominiums registered in the firm's database by municipality and converts them to a 70-square-meter equivalent. It covers family-type units only, excluding units under 30 square meters and office or shop use, and the September sample for the Kinki region was 19,199 listings^[2].

The headline: in Osaka's six central wards (Fukushima, Nishi, Tennoji, Naniwa, Kita and Chuo), the asking price was ¥93.27 million in September, down 1.5% from the previous month and the third consecutive monthly decline. Osaka City as a whole rose only 0.2% to ¥65.58 million, a clear loss of momentum. Osaka Prefecture overall still rose 1.4% to ¥45.06 million, helped by more newer listings^[2].

The Kinki region and Osaka Prefecture: averages are still rising

• Kinki region average: ¥36.93 million, up 1.5% month on month, the 16th consecutive monthly increase, and up 15.7% from a year earlier^[2].
• Osaka Prefecture: ¥45.06 million, up 1.4% month on month and 21.0% year on year. Tokyo Kantei notes that the price trend in central Osaka is showing some weakness, but an increase in newer listings widened the prefecture's gain^[2].
• Hyogo Prefecture: ¥26.51 million, up 0.2%, with no notable movement over the past three months^[2].

One statistical caveat matters here. These are averages of asking prices, so a change in the mix of listings moves the average directly. A month with more newer, larger units on the market pushes the average up, which does not mean the same unit became more expensive.

Osaka City: 22 months of increases, but only 0.2% left

Among the main cities, Osaka City stood at ¥65.58 million in September, up 0.2% month on month and the 22nd consecutive monthly increase, but Tokyo Kantei describes the pace of increase as steadily weakening. The year-on-year gain is still 22.7%^[2]. Kobe City rose 1.2% to ¥29.29 million, its first increase in two months, exceeding the record set in July^[2].

Over a full year, the 70-square-meter asking price in Osaka City climbed from ¥53.45 million in September 2025 to ¥65.58 million in September 2026^[3]. That is a large gain, but the monthly changes in the last three months were only 0.6%, 0.6% and 0.2%, so the curve is close to flat^[2].

The six central wards: three straight declines, leading indicators weakening

In the six central wards, the 70-square-meter asking price was ¥94.97 million in July (down 0.1%), ¥94.65 million in August (down 0.3%) and ¥93.27 million in September (down 1.5%), with the decline widening each month. The year-on-year gain narrowed from 15.9% in July to 10.3% in September^[2]. The average age of the units in the sample is 19.8 years, much younger than the 26.6 years for Osaka City as a whole, which shows that the central-ward sample is dominated by relatively new tower and large-scale condominiums^[2].

Tokyo Kantei states that in central Osaka, as in central Tokyo, all three leading indicators of the price trend, namely the number of listings, the share of listings with price revisions and the rate of price cuts, are deteriorating rapidly^[2]. On the Tokyo side, the six central wards fell 1.6% to ¥177.86 million in September, the fifth consecutive monthly decline, with the year-on-year gain shrinking to 1.3%, while the 23 wards fell 0.4% to ¥126.29 million, the fourth consecutive decline^[2]. In other words, central Tokyo adjusted first, and central Osaka is now following.

Four in ten listings have cut their price

Indicator data released by Tokyo Kantei the same day show that the number of resale condominiums on the market in Osaka City (net inventory with duplicates removed) rose from 4,002 units in September 2025 to 4,482 units in September 2026. The price-revision share, meaning the proportion of continuing listings that cut their price at least once in the past three months, rose from 31.9% to 40.6% (39.4% in August), and the average price cut widened from 5.9% to 6.1%^[3]. For comparison, the price-revision share in Tokyo's 23 wards reached 51.0% in September, with an average cut of 6.4%^[3].

These figures point in the same direction as the Kinki REINS quarterly data we covered yesterday: transactions are falling, inventory is rising and sellers are starting to adjust prices themselves. Asking prices are what sellers hope to get, and they are usually the last indicator to reflect a change in the market. When even asking prices start to slip, sellers' expectations are moving toward buyers.

What this means for buyers

First, there is more room to negotiate on central tower condominiums. Asking prices in the six central wards have fallen for three months in a row, and four in ten listings have cut their price within the past three months. There is no need to accept the first asking price as given. Use recent transactions and price-revision histories in the same building as the basis for an offer.

Second, do not treat the average as the market value of a specific unit. The Osaka Prefecture and Kinki averages are still rising because newer units make up a larger share of listings. The central-ward sample averages 19.8 years old, a different market from suburban condominiums over 30 years old^[2]. Whether a unit is expensive depends on recent comparable cases in the same area, of the same age and the same type.

Third, weakening leading indicators do not mean prices will fall sharply. Osaka City is still up 22.7% year on year and the six central wards are still up 10.3%. What the data show so far is a slowdown and an adjustment at high levels, not a reversal of the trend^[2]. Interest rates, new supply and overseas buyers will all shape what comes next, and all of these remain uncertain.

Fourth, owner-occupier buyers can take their time. More inventory and more price cuts mean you can view several units and compare building management and repair reserve funds instead of rushing to secure a unit.

Summary

Tokyo Kantei's 70-square-meter asking-price data for September 2026 show the Kinki and Osaka Prefecture averages still rising, but Osaka City up only 0.2%, the six central wards down for a third consecutive month, and the share of listings with price cuts up to 40.6%^[2][3]. The resale condominium market in central Osaka is moving from one-way increases to a phase where sellers and buyers are repricing. If you are looking at tower or resale condominiums around Umeda, Nakanoshima or Namba, please contact us. We can review the asking and transaction history of a specific building and help you judge whether a price is reasonable.