November Mortgage Rates: Four Major Banks Cut 10-Year Fixed, Variable Unchanged, but the Short-Term Prime Rate Rises 0.25% from 2 November

The bottom line: fixed rates ease, but variable-rate bills are about to start moving

On 30 October 2026 Japan's five largest banks announced their mortgage rates for November. Four of them cut their best 10-year fixed rate; only MUFG Bank raised it. All five left their variable rates unchanged^[1]. On the surface that reads as good news about falling rates. But in the same month of November, MUFG Bank and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) raise their short-term prime rate from 2.375% to 2.625%, effective 2 November and 9 November respectively^[3][4]. Variable-rate mortgages are priced off exactly that short-term prime rate, so for anyone already repaying a loan, the process that lifts monthly payments starts this month. For new borrowers, an unchanged variable rate in November does not mean an unchanged rate in December.

The facts: November rates at each bank

The best 10-year fixed rates for November, as compiled by Kyodo News (annual rates), are as follows^[1]:

• Mizuho Bank 3.400%, cut^[1]
• SMBC 3.700%, cut^[1]
• Resona Bank 4.065%, cut^[1]
• Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank 4.445%, cut^[1]
• MUFG Bank 3.890%, raised by 0.140 percentage points^[1]

The four banks that cut did so by between 0.140 and 0.520 percentage points; all five kept their variable rates at the previous month's level^[1]. MUFG Bank's own website lists its November rates for new loans as 1.195% variable (best rate), 3.89% for 10-year fixed, 4.61% for 20-year fixed and 4.50% for a full-term fixed loan of 31 to 35 years^[2].

An unchanged variable rate means October's levels carry into November. According to the Nikkei, the five banks' best variable rates in October were MUFG 1.195%, SMBC 1.525%, Mizuho 1.275%, Resona 1.25% and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust 1.7%, an average of 1.389%; the average 10-year fixed rate that month was 4.104%^[7]. So November's 10-year fixed rates are generally cheaper than October's, but the gap between variable and fixed is still more than two percentage points.

For full-term fixed loans, the most common rate on the Japan Housing Finance Agency's Flat 35 (terms of 21 to 35 years, loan-to-value of 90 percent or less) was 3.830% in October^[9]. The November figure had not been published when this article was written.

Background: long-term yields fell, and fixed rates followed

Ten-year fixed mortgage rates track the 10-year government bond yield. Ministry of Finance data show the newly issued 10-year JGB yield at 2.943% on 31 August, rising to 3.082% on 28 and 29 September and to 3.111% on 7 October before falling back to 2.876% on 29 October^[6]. Kyodo notes that the 10-year yield rose above 3% in September, its highest in about 30 years, and has since slipped back below 3%; the fixed-rate cuts reflect that retreat^[1].

In other words, the cuts are not a favour from the banks. They reflect a modest cooling in October of market expectations about the path of rate hikes and inflation. Note too that MUFG Bank moved the other way in the same month, raising its 10-year fixed rate to 3.890%^[1]. Banks do not adjust fixed rates in step, so when comparing offers, look at the rate you can actually get rather than the headline that four banks cut.

The key point: the short-term prime rate rises from 2 November, and variable rates begin to follow

A variable-rate mortgage is priced from a bank's posted base rate, which is the short-term prime rate plus a set margin, minus the bank's discount. The short-term prime rate in turn moves with the Bank of Japan's policy rate. On 18 September the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from around 1.0% to around 1.25%, effective 24 September^[8]. MUFG Bank then announced on 18 September that its short-term prime rate would rise by 0.25 percentage points, from 2.375% to 2.625%, on 2 November^[3]. SMBC announced on 28 September the same increase to 2.625%, effective 9 November and applying to new lending and interest payments from that date^[4]. Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank has also told customers that, following the 2 November revision of the short-term prime rate, rates on loans priced off it, including mortgages and apartment loans, will rise by 0.25 percentage points^[5].

Two things need to be kept apart here. First, the best variable rate for new loans did not move in November because banks publish rates monthly, and November's rates were set before the prime-rate change took effect. The Nikkei reported at the end of September that the major banks planned to revise the short-term prime rate in November and that variable mortgage rates were expected to keep rising from December^[7]. Second, the rate on an existing variable-rate loan changes on the review date written into the contract, not on the day of the announcement. The next section looks at that in detail.

What it means for buyers and for existing borrowers

If you are repaying a variable-rate loan: your payment will not change immediately, but it will change. Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank's notice spells out the mechanics. The change date varies by product. Under the equal-payment method with a five-year review, the monthly payment is fixed for five years, and when it is recalculated in year five the new payment is capped at 125% of the previous one even if rates have risen. Under the twice-yearly review method, payments are recalculated when the rate changes on the reference dates of 1 April and 1 October. Revised repayment schedules will be mailed from mid-April 2027 onward^[5]. In short, for most borrowers the full effect reaches the bill only in 2027, but interest accrues at the new rate from the change date. The five-year rule defers the cost; it does not waive it.

If you are choosing between variable and fixed: the gap is still wide, but the two are moving in opposite directions. A simple calculation using MUFG Bank's November rates for a ¥50 million loan over 35 years with equal monthly payments (excluding fees and guarantee charges): at a variable rate of 1.195% the monthly payment is about ¥146,000; at the 10-year fixed rate of 3.89% it is about ¥218,000; if the variable rate rises with the prime rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.445%, the payment is about ¥152,000^[2]. Fixed rates fell this month but remain more than 2.5 percentage points above variable. Variable is cheaper today, but as shown above, September's rate hike feeds through to variable rates after November, and each 0.25-point rise adds roughly ¥6,000 a month on this loan.

If you lean toward a fixed rate: nobody can promise whether this is a window or a starting point. The 10-year JGB yield fell from 3.111% on 7 October to 2.876% on 29 October, and fixed rates followed^[6]. Whether yields keep falling depends on inflation and the Bank of Japan's next move, not on the mortgage lenders. If you have decided to lock in a rate, comparing the actual rates and fees offered by each bank is more useful than waiting for next month's figures.

Overseas buyers and investors: if rent will service the loan, build a scenario in which the variable rate rises by another 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points into your cash-flow projection. Buyers whose income is outside Japan should layer exchange-rate movements on top.

Summary

November's mortgage rates can be summed up as fixed down, variable flat^[1]. But the short-term prime rate rises by 0.25 percentage points from 2 November and 9 November^[3][4], and the cost of variable-rate loans will climb step by step over the coming months. Whether you are comparing loan options or already repaying a variable-rate mortgage, the useful exercise now is to rerun your payments under a scenario in which the variable rate rises by another half a percentage point. If you are considering a purchase in Osaka, please get in touch. We can work through the repayment burden under several rate scenarios for a specific property and your own finances.