Kinki Resale Condo Sales Fall for a Third Quarter; Osaka City Price Drops for the First Time in 44 Quarters

The short version: resale condo sales fall for a third quarter, prices soften, but asking prices keep rising

On October 20, 2026, the Kinki Real Estate Information Network (Kinki REINS) published its market report on existing homes in the six prefectures of the Kinki region (Osaka, Hyogo, Kyoto, Shiga, Nara and Wakayama) for July to September 2026^[1]. Resale condominium transactions totaled 4,342, down 10.7% from a year earlier and the third consecutive quarterly decline. The average transaction price was ¥31.43 million, down 2.0% and the first fall in 5 quarters. Meanwhile the average new asking price was ¥36.79 million, up 13.4%, rising for the 15th consecutive quarter since January to March 2023^[1].

In short, sellers keep raising their asking prices, but both the number and the price of actual deals are falling, and the gap between what sellers want and what buyers will pay is widening.

The key numbers for Kinki resale condominiums

• Transactions: 4,342 (−10.7%), the third consecutive quarterly decline. New listings: 18,342 (+6.3%), the first increase in 3 quarters. Inventory at the end of September: 22,065 units (+3.3%), the first increase in 4 quarters^[2].
• Transaction price per square meter: ¥465,500 (−1.5%), the first decline in 26 quarters since January to March 2020, and down 3.5% from the previous quarter^[2].
• Average transaction price: ¥31.43 million (−2.0%), down 4.4% from the previous quarter. The average unit sold had 67.53 square meters of floor area and was 29.05 years old^[2].
• New asking price per square meter: ¥571,700 (+12.6%). Inventory price per square meter: ¥581,400 (+20.8%). Average inventory price: ¥37.07 million (+21.1%)^[2].

Falling transaction prices alongside rising asking and inventory prices suggest that many sellers are still pricing off last year's market while buyers have stopped accepting those prices, so fewer deals close and unsold stock builds up.

Osaka City: the first price decline in 44 quarters

By area, transactions fell in 8 of the 12 areas covered, with double-digit declines in 7 of them, every one except Kobe City. Osaka City and Kyoto City have now fallen for 3 consecutive quarters, and Kobe City fell for the first time in 10 quarters^[2]. Transaction prices fell in 6 areas, 4 more than in the previous quarter. Osaka City recorded its first decline in 44 quarters, since July to September 2015, and southern Osaka Prefecture its first in 5 quarters^[2].

In Osaka City, 1,190 resale condominiums changed hands (−14.0%). The price per square meter was ¥715,800 (−3.6%) and the average price ¥42.94 million (−4.0%), down 5.0% from ¥45.23 million in the previous quarter. The average unit sold had 60.00 square meters and was 25.70 years old^[2].

The rest of Osaka Prefecture is diverging. The north (Toyonaka, Suita, Takatsuki and others) saw 501 transactions (−12.1%) at an average ¥32.11 million (−3.4%). The east (Higashiosaka, Hirakata and others) saw 295 (+0.3%) at ¥23.14 million (+6.8%), the fourth consecutive quarterly rise. The south (Sakai and beyond) saw 322 (+1.3%) at ¥18.80 million (−8.4%)^[2].

Osaka City has been the strongest-rising area in the Kinki region for the past few years, so this reversal deserves attention. Quarterly figures, however, depend heavily on the mix of units sold, such as age, size and ward, so a single quarter's decline does not establish a change in trend.

Detached houses are cooling too

Resale detached house transactions totaled 3,370 (−2.4%), the first decline in 15 quarters since October to December 2022. New listings reached 13,977 (+5.7%), the 15th consecutive quarterly increase. The average price was ¥23.60 million (−1.0%), the first fall in 2 quarters, and inventory at the end of September was 20,747 (+6.4%), the 17th consecutive increase^[1]. In Osaka City, 259 detached houses sold (−11.9%) at an average ¥38.22 million (+3.1%)^[2].

Why asking prices rise while transaction prices fall

In its press release, Kinki REINS notes that the gap between asking and transaction prices persists, that Bank of Japan rate hikes and persistently high long-term rates are expected, that mortgage rates are rising for both variable and fixed loans, and that resale transactions in the Kinki region are slowing^[1]. It adds that for properties aimed at owner-occupiers, further rate rises could bring more price adjustment, that selection by area and property type will intensify, and that demand-based pricing will matter more^[1].

The mechanism is straightforward. Higher mortgage rates cut the amount buyers can borrow and raise monthly payments, which lowers the ceiling on what they will pay. Sellers' expectations lag the market, anchored on recent deals and neighbors' listings. When the two sides drift apart, asking prices keep climbing, transaction prices slip and inventory grows.

What this means for buyers

1. The asking price is no longer a floor. Average transaction prices are well below average asking prices, so there is more room to negotiate. Use recent actual transactions in the same building or neighborhood as your benchmark, not the listing price.

2. More listings and more inventory mean more choice. There is less need to rush than a year ago. Compare several units and weigh management quality, repair reserve funds, building age and orientation.

3. Areas are diverging. Osaka City prices fell while eastern Osaka Prefecture kept rising, and buildings of different ages move differently. Judge whether a price is fair by its own sub-market, not by the Kinki-wide average.

4. Interest rates are the biggest variable. Kinki REINS singles out rising mortgage rates. If you plan to borrow, model your payments at a higher rate than today's, not just the current one. Cash buyers should consider the financing conditions a future buyer will face when they resell.

Summary

In July to September 2026, resale condominium transactions in the Kinki region fell for a third consecutive quarter, the price per square meter declined for the first time in 26 quarters, and Osaka City's average price fell for the first time in 44 quarters, while asking prices kept rising and inventory turned upward^[1][2]. The market is shifting from a seller's market to one where buyers and sellers are renegotiating price. If you are considering a resale condominium in Osaka City, feel free to contact us. We can help you judge whether an asking price is reasonable using transaction records and management documents for the specific building.