Kinki Resale Condo Sales Fall for a Ninth Month in October; Gap Between Asking and Sold Prices Nears ¥10 Million

The short version: sales keep shrinking, asking prices keep rising, and the gap is now close to ¥10 million

On November 10, 2026, the Kinki Real Estate Information Network System (Kinki REINS) released its monthly report for October 2026, covering the resale housing market in the Kinki region's six prefectures (Osaka, Hyogo, Kyoto, Shiga, Nara and Wakayama) ^[1]. In October, 1,607 resale condominiums changed hands in the Kinki region, down 10.9% from a year earlier and the ninth consecutive monthly decline. The average sold price was ¥30.40 million, down 4.6% and falling for a third straight month. Meanwhile, the average price of properties newly listed that month was ¥40.29 million, up 20.4% ^[1].

In other words, the homes put on the market in October were, on average, priced about ¥9.9 million above the homes that actually sold. ^[1] The pattern seen last quarter, with asking prices rising while sold prices fall, did not narrow in October. It became more pronounced.

Key numbers for Kinki resale condominiums

• Sales: 1,607 transactions (−10.9%), a ninth monthly decline. The average sold price per square meter was ¥456,200 (−2.9%), down for a third month and 1.3% lower than in September. The average sold price was ¥30.40 million (−4.6%), 2.6% lower than in September. The average floor area of sold units was 66.64 m² (−1.7%) ^[1].
• New listings: 7,029 (+15.1%), up for a fourth month. The average new-listing price per square meter was ¥616,600 (+18.1%), rising for 29 consecutive months since June 2024 and up 5.8% from September. The average new-listing price was ¥40.29 million (+20.4%), up 7.5% from September ^[1].
• Inventory: 22,843 units (+7.2%), up for a third month. The average inventory price per square meter was ¥591,900 (+21.9%), and the average inventory price was ¥37.90 million (+22.6%) ^[1].

A year earlier, in October 2025, the average sold price was ¥31.87 million and the average new-listing price was ¥33.45 million, a gap of only about ¥1.6 million. By October this year the gap had widened to about ¥9.9 million ^[1]. More homes are being listed at higher prices, but sales are not keeping up, so inventory is building.

Osaka: Osaka City sales down a fifth, yet price per square meter is up

By area, 10 of the 12 areas in the Kinki region saw fewer transactions than a year earlier. Osaka City, northern Osaka Prefecture, the rest of Hyogo, Kyoto City and Shiga all recorded double-digit declines. Osaka City and Kyoto City have declined for nine consecutive months, and northern Osaka Prefecture for seven ^[1].

In Osaka City, 427 resale condominiums sold in October (−20.0%). The average sold price per square meter was ¥721,400, actually up 3.7%. The average sold price was ¥40.86 million (−4.6%), and the average floor area of sold units was 56.64 m², 7.9% smaller ^[1]. Prices per square meter rose while total prices fell mainly because the units that sold were smaller. When compact units for singles or investors make up a larger share of sales, the average total price is pulled down. For Osaka City, price per square meter is therefore a better guide to price levels for comparable homes than the total price.

Other parts of Osaka Prefecture ^[1]:

• North (Toyonaka, Suita, Takatsuki and others): 181 sales (−13.0%), ¥442,000 per m² (+3.5%), average price ¥32.45 million (+4.2%).^[1]
• East (Higashiosaka, Hirakata and others): 100 sales (−6.5%), ¥320,800 per m² (−0.4%), the first year-on-year decline in 11 months; average price ¥21.50 million (−5.2%).^[1]
• South (Sakai and further south): 122 sales, ¥255,900 per m² (−13.0%), down for a fourth month; average price ¥17.83 million (−16.7%).^[1]

In Hyogo's Hanshin area (Amagasaki, Nishinomiya, Ashiya and others), the price per square meter rose 6.2%, up for a seventh month, showing clear regional differences ^[1].

Resale detached houses: slightly fewer sales, inventory up for 52 months

In October, 1,228 resale detached houses sold in the Kinki region (−2.2%), a second monthly decline. The average sold price was ¥23.28 million (+1.0%), flat from September. Inventory stood at 21,100 (+7.6%), rising for 52 consecutive months since July 2022 ^[1].

Why asking and sold prices keep drifting apart

In its quarterly report released in October, Kinki REINS already noted that the divergence between asking prices and sold prices was continuing. With the Bank of Japan raising rates and long-term yields staying high, both variable and fixed mortgage rates have risen, and resale housing transactions in the Kinki region are slowing ^[2].

The mechanism is straightforward. Higher mortgage rates reduce how much buyers can borrow and the monthly payment they can carry, which lowers the most they can offer. Sellers, on the other hand, tend to anchor on prices from the past year or two and on neighbors' asking prices, and adjust slowly. In October, new listings rose 15.1% and asking prices rose 20.4%, which suggests many sellers are still testing the market at high prices ^[1]. If those homes do not sell, they stay in inventory, and rising inventory usually feeds through to price cuts over time.

Monthly figures are heavily affected by the mix of properties sold (age, size and location), so a single month's move should not be over-read. The direction over several months is more reliable.

What this means for buyers

First, the asking price is only the seller's starting point. Across the Kinki region, the gap between asking and sold prices is widening. When assessing a property, use recent actual sales in the same building or neighborhood as the benchmark.

Second, there is more choice and time to compare. With both new listings and inventory rising, there is no need to rush. Buyers can compare building management, repair reserve funds, building age and layout side by side.

Third, in Osaka City, look at price per square meter, not just the total. Osaka City's average sold price fell mainly because smaller units sold, while price per square meter for comparable homes is still rising. It is not accurate to say simply that Osaka City prices are falling.

Fourth, regional differences are widening. Northern Osaka Prefecture saw price per square meter rise, the south saw a clear decline, and the Hanshin area kept rising. Whether a price is reasonable depends on the specific sub-market a home belongs to, not on the Kinki-wide average.

Fifth, interest rates remain the biggest variable. Buyers using a mortgage should calculate their monthly payment under a further rate rise. Cash buyers should also consider what financing conditions the next buyer will face when they eventually sell.

Summary

In October 2026, resale condominium transactions in the Kinki region fell for a ninth consecutive month and sold prices fell for a third month, while new-listing prices kept rising and inventory grew for a third month ^[1]. Osaka City saw a fifth fewer sales, but price per square meter is still rising: the market is not falling across the board but diverging by area and by property. If you are considering a resale condominium in Osaka, please contact us. We can review recent sales and management records for a specific building to help you judge whether an asking price is reasonable.