Kinki New Condos Hit Record ¥60.1M Average in H1 FY2026, September Launches Halve

The short version: record prices, but fewer launches and a weaker contract rate

On October 20, 2026, the Real Estate Economic Institute published its market report on new condominiums in the Kinki region (Osaka, Hyogo, Kyoto, Nara, Shiga and Wakayama) for the first half of fiscal 2026, April to September^[1]. The average price per unit was ¥60.10 million, up 8.4% from a year earlier and the highest since the survey began in 1973, setting a record for the 2nd year in a row. The average price per square meter was ¥1.050 million, up 11.2%^[1]. At the same time, 6,557 units were launched, down 8.6% and the first decline in 3 years, and the average first-month contract rate was 69.3%, down 2.6 points and below 70% for the first time in 4 years^[1].

In short, prices are still rising, but new units are not selling as quickly as before.

The key numbers for the half year

• Launches totaled 6,557 units, far below the 2010s average of 10,047 units^[1].
• Excluding investor-type units, launches were 4,946 units, down 8.1%^[1].
• The average price of ¥60.10 million was ¥4.67 million higher than a year earlier, and the price per square meter of ¥1.050 million set a first-half record for the 5th consecutive year^[1].
• Unsold inventory, including units still under construction, stood at 3,007 units, 100 more than the 2,907 at the end of September 2025^[1].
• Osaka City: 2,372 units launched (down 7.3%), a contract rate of 76.0%, an average price of ¥63.88 million (up 22.8%) and ¥1.318 million per square meter (up 15.0%)^[1].

The contract rate in Osaka City is still above the Kinki average, so buyers are still there for central new builds. But with the average price up more than a fifth in a year, the entry ticket has clearly become more expensive^[1].

September alone: launches halved, average price spiked

The monthly figures for September, released the same day, are even more extreme. Only 752 units were launched across the Kinki region, down 49.6% from 1,492 a year earlier and the lowest September figure since the survey began in 1973. The average price was ¥70.75 million, up 37.6%, and the price per square meter was ¥1.150 million, up 19.7%. The contract rate was 62.6%, below 70% for the second month running after 67.3% in August^[2]. Osaka City accounted for 17.7% of September launches^[2]. The institute expects around 1,300 launches in October, and completed-but-unsold inventory at the end of September was 1,395 units^[2].

Monthly figures swing heavily with the timing of large projects, so they should not be read as a trend on their own. Still, low supply, high prices and a low contract rate all at once is worth noting.

Why prices rise while supply shrinks

The price of a new condominium is set by land cost, construction cost and the developer's target margin. When land and construction costs rise, developers rarely cut prices; the usual response is to launch fewer units and slow the pace while the market absorbs what is already on sale. That is one reason launches fell.

The average price also depends on the product mix. Many small investor-type units pull the average down, while a cluster of large central or high-rise units pushes it up. Launches excluding investor-type units also fell in the half year, which suggests supply for owner-occupiers is tightening too^[1].

The contract rate is the share of units sold in the month they are launched, and about seventy percent is the usual benchmark for a balanced market. A falling contract rate means fewer buyers are willing to sign immediately at current prices.

What this means for buyers

1. New-build prices anchor resale prices. When the average new-build price in an area rises, asking prices for resale condominiums tend to follow. For resale buyers, the new-build data is a guide to what sellers have in mind.

2. A falling contract rate may mean room to negotiate is opening up. When new units sell slowly, developers use discounts, upgrades or longer sales periods to clear inventory, and resale sellers in a hurry become more open to offers. This usually shows up first in suburban areas and places with concentrated supply; popular central buildings do not necessarily move in step.

3. The average price is not the price of the unit you buy. Monthly averages jump around depending on which projects happen to launch. Judge a specific building by recent transactions in the same building or similar nearby projects, not by the Kinki-wide average.

4. Do not chase the rise, and do not bet on a fall. Interest rates, exchange rates, construction costs and inbound demand can all change the trend. Decide based on how long you plan to hold, your loan terms and how you will use the property, whether to live in, rent out, or both.

Summary

In the first half of fiscal 2026, the average new condominium price in the Kinki region hit a record high, while launches fell, the contract rate dropped below 70% and September launches halved from a year earlier. The market is shifting from rising volume and prices to rising prices on shrinking supply^[1][2]. If you are considering a condominium in Osaka City, feel free to contact us. We can help you judge whether an asking price is reasonable using transaction records and management documents for the specific building.