MLIT September Housing Starts: Kinki Condominium Starts Down 32.5%, Osaka Prefecture Down 12.8%. How to Read New-Home Supply

In one sentence: nationwide housing starts fell for the first time in six months and Kinki condominium starts dropped by a third in September, but on a cumulative basis Osaka Prefecture is holding up

On 30 October 2026 the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) published the Building Construction Statistics Survey for September 2026. New housing starts across Japan totalled 61,826 units, down 2.7% year on year and the first decline in six months; the seasonally adjusted annualised rate was 714 thousand units, down 5.2% from August and the third consecutive monthly fall ^[1][2]. By type of use, owner-occupied, rental and for-sale housing all declined, and condominiums for sale were the biggest drag at 4,825 units, down 21.2% ^[2]. In the Kinki region, condominium starts were only 942 units, down 32.5%; in Osaka Prefecture they were 673 units, down 12.8% ^[2]. A single month, however, depends heavily on whether large projects happened to break ground in that month or the ones around it. Kinki condominium starts in August were up 61.9% year on year, and over April to September combined Kinki is down 2.8% while Osaka Prefecture is actually up 5.3% ^[2].

What this survey is

The Building Construction Statistics Survey is a monthly MLIT statistic designed to track building starts nationwide and provide basic data for building and housing policy. Each month's figures are released at the end of the following month: September 2026 was published at 14:00 on 30 October, and October is scheduled for 30 November ^[3][2]. It counts starts, meaning homes on which construction actually began after building confirmation, not completions and not sales launches ^[3].

New housing is split by type of use into four categories: owner-occupied homes built by the owner, rental housing, company housing, and for-sale housing built by developers. For-sale housing is further divided into condominiums and detached houses. A "condominium" here is defined as for-sale housing in a multi-unit building with a steel-reinforced concrete, reinforced concrete or steel structure ^[2]. The new condominiums buyers see in a sales gallery are, roughly speaking, projects that were counted in this category one to two years earlier.

September's main figures nationwide and by metropolitan area

Nationwide figures for September by type of use were as follows: owner-occupied 17,648 units (down 3.4% year on year), rental 28,046 (down 1.6%), for-sale 15,688 (down 4.5%). Within for-sale housing, condominiums were 4,825 units (down 21.2%, the first decline in five months) and detached houses 10,687 (up 6.1%, the sixth consecutive monthly increase) ^[2]. Condominiums made up only 30.8% of for-sale starts, the lowest share of any month in the past year ^[2].

The table below shows September starts and year-on-year changes for the three major metropolitan areas and the rest of Japan ^[2].

Area	Total	Owner-occupied	Rental	Condominiums	Detached for sale
Tokyo area	22,945 (−0.3%)	3,956 (−1.3%)	11,454 (−2.6%)	2,452 (−1.8%)	4,796 (+7.3%)
Chubu area	6,690 (−3.4%)	2,596 (−2.6%)	2,366 (−2.4%)	389 (−27.3%)	1,262 (−2.0%)
Kinki area	9,994 (−8.1%)	2,417 (−6.8%)	5,009 (−8.3%)	942 (−32.5%)	1,523 (+8.9%)
Other regions	22,197 (−2.5%)	8,679 (−3.6%)	9,217 (+4.2%)	1,042 (−38.4%)	3,106 (+6.6%)

The Tokyo area is Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo and Kanagawa; the Chubu area is Gifu, Shizuoka, Aichi and Mie; the Kinki area is Shiga, Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, Nara and Wakayama ^[2]. Condominium starts fell sharply outside the three major areas and in Kinki and Chubu, while detached houses for sale increased everywhere except Chubu ^[2].

Kinki and Osaka Prefecture: a steep single month, but look at the cumulative figures

Total starts in Kinki in September were 9,994 units, down 8.1% year on year, the largest decline of the four areas; owner-occupied, rental and for-sale housing fell 6.8%, 8.3% and 12.0% respectively ^[2]. By prefecture, Osaka had 5,150 units, down 1.3%, comprising 810 owner-occupied (up 0.2%), 2,991 rental (up 1.3%), 1,343 for-sale (down 7.7%), of which 673 condominiums (down 12.8%) and 670 detached houses (down 1.0%) ^[2]. Kyoto Prefecture had 1,382 units, down 24.7%, with only 122 condominiums, down 75.4%; Hyogo had 2,158 units, down 4.8%, but its condominium starts rose 14.8% to 147 and detached houses for sale rose 32.2% to 485 ^[2].

Condominium starts are counted project by project, so a single large development can double a month's figure. They need to be read together with neighbouring months and cumulative totals. Kinki condominium starts in August were 2,499 units, up 61.9% year on year, of which Osaka Prefecture accounted for 1,758, up 73.9%; in September the figures were just 942 and 673 ^[2]. For April to September 2026 combined, Kinki had 9,242 units, down 2.8%, and Osaka Prefecture 6,140, up 5.3%; the three major areas together had 30,766, up 6.2%, of which the Tokyo area was 18,233, up 18.7% ^[2]. For January to September 2026, Kinki had 14,128 units, down 9.0%, and Osaka Prefecture 8,453, down 4.1% ^[2].

Over a full fiscal year, nationwide condominium starts in FY2025 (April 2025 to March 2026) were 82,881 units, down 21.2% on the previous year; Kinki had 22,507, down 4.7%; Osaka Prefecture had 14,260, up 6.4% ^[2]. In other words, in a year when new condominium supply across Japan shrank markedly, Osaka Prefecture was one of the few areas that maintained and even increased its starts.

Base effects from spring 2025 also matter. Nationwide total starts were down 29.3% year on year in March 2026 and up 33.9% in May, swings of a size that mainly reflect unusual levels in the same months a year earlier; cumulative or seasonally adjusted figures are the better guide to the trend ^[2].

What it means for buyers

First, today's starts determine new supply one to two years from now. Kinki condominium starts for January to September were 9.0% below last year, so the number of new condominiums on sale in Kinki around 2027 is unlikely to be larger than it is now ^[2]. For those planning to buy new, this means the range of choice will not widen quickly; for owners of recently completed condominiums, it means limited new supply of comparable homes.

Second, Osaka and Kyoto are in different situations. Osaka Prefecture's condominium starts for April to September were 5.3% above last year and rose 6.4% in FY2025, so new projects keep coming to market; Kyoto Prefecture started only 122 units in September and its January to September supply was also clearly thin ^[2]. Anyone looking for a new condominium in Kyoto city will find far fewer projects than in Osaka, and resale condominiums or new detached houses become the more realistic options.

Third, detached houses for sale are increasing. Nationwide they have risen for six consecutive months, and in September Kinki was up 8.9% and Hyogo up 32.2% ^[2]. With construction costs rising, developers are putting more resources into detached housing; families with a limited budget who want to live in the suburbs may want to compare new detached houses alongside resale condominiums.

Fourth, starts are not prices. Falling starts point to a tighter supply side, but prices also depend on demand, interest rates and construction costs. The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged on 30 October but said it would continue raising rates ^[4]; average new condominium prices are already high, and scarce supply does not automatically make a purchase a good one. Each project still has to be judged on location, management plan and whether the total price fits within your repayment capacity.

Summary

MLIT's building starts statistics for September 2026 show nationwide new housing starts of 61,826 units, down 2.7% year on year and the first decline in six months; condominiums at 4,825 units, down 21.2%; Kinki condominiums at 942 units, down 32.5%; and Osaka Prefecture at 673 units, down 12.8% ^[1][2]. The single-month drop looks large, but for April to September Kinki was down only 2.8% and Osaka Prefecture up 5.3%, and Osaka was also up 6.4% in FY2025; new condominium supply in Osaka is relatively stable, Kyoto's is clearly thin, and detached houses for sale are increasing nationwide ^[2]. If you are considering a new condominium, a resale condominium or a detached house in Osaka or Kyoto, please contact us. We can draw on the status of projects under construction and awaiting sale in each ward to help you compare supply and prices across property types.